Conceptualizing VUCA or BANI environments serves to understand, analyze, and manage the complexity and uncertainty of the contexts in which organizations, businesses, or individuals operate. These frameworks help identify key environmental characteristics and develop adaptive strategies. Conceptualizing environments allows leaders, organizations, and individuals to anticipate challenges, adapt to rapid change, and make informed decisions in unpredictable contexts.
One of the first conceptual frameworks was VUCA. The VUCA concept (Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity, and Ambiguity) originated in the United States military in the early 1990s, following the end of the Cold War, to describe the changing and challenging environment of that period. This term was later extended to the business and strategic world to analyze dynamic and complex environments.
En 2020 el prestigiado futurólogo Jamais Casciopropone el concepto BANI: Brittle (frágil), Anxious (ansioso), Nonlinear (no lineal), e Incomprehensible (incomprensible).
BANI is an evolution of VUCA that reflects today's even more uncertain reality. Faced with disruptive innovations, the rise of artificial intelligence, political and military conflicts, the discrediting of ideologies, the erosion of globalism, and the growing possibility of facing an economic recession, strategic decision-making is becoming increasingly complex and risky.
BANI Environment
B (Brittle)
When something is fragile, it is susceptible to sudden and catastrophic failure. Fragile things appear strong—they can even be—until they reach a breaking point, and then everything falls apart. Fragile systems are solid until they aren't. Fragility is an illusory strength. Fragile things are not resilient, sometimes even anti-resilient; they can hinder resilience. A fragile system in a BANI world may consistently signal that it is good, strong, and able to continue, even on the brink of collapse..
A (Anxious)
Anxiety involves a sense of helplessness, a fear that whatever we do, it will always be the wrong thing. In an anxious world, every decision seems potentially disastrous. It is closely linked to depression and fear. An anxious world is one in which we are constantly waiting for something to happen, or, in a more modern cliché, where every day is F5 Friday, simply hitting the refresh key to see what horror appears next. Conversely, we may go to great lengths to avoid any source of news about the world.
N (Nonlinear)
In a nonlinear world, cause and effect appear disconnected or disproportionate. Perhaps other systems interfere or obscure them, or perhaps there is hidden hysteresis—huge delays between visible cause and effect. In a nonlinear world, the results of actions taken, or not taken, can end up being extremely unbalanced. Small decisions have enormous consequences, good or bad. Or, we push ourselves immensely, pushing again and again, but with few visible results.
I (Incomprehensible)
We witness events and decisions that seem illogical or senseless, either because their origins are too distant, too indescribable, or simply too absurd. "Why did they do that?" "How did it happen?" We try to find answers, but they don't make sense. Furthermore, more information doesn't guarantee better understanding. More data, even big data, can be counterproductive, overwhelming our ability to understand the world and making it difficult to distinguish noise from signal. Incomprehensibility is, in effect, the ultimate state of "information overload."".
Sensemaking
Sensemaking is a process by which people interpret and make sense of the information they receive, especially in complex and ambiguous situations, in order to act accordingly. It is a dynamic and ongoing process that uses information, experiences, and prior knowledge to construct a plausible understanding of an environment or situation.
To achieve sensemaking, the tools we have created to manage this level of change (thinking and future scenarios, simulations and models, sensors and transparency) are not enough; they are mechanisms that allow us to think and work in a VUCA environment. Now we have to enhance intuition.
Key concepts of meaning making:
- Dynamic process: Sensemaking is not a single event, but a continuous process of interpretation and adaptation.
- Personal interpretation: Meaning-making is subjective and based on individual perspective, which can lead to different interpretations of the same situation.
- Search for coherence: The main objective of sensemaking is to find coherence and plausibility in the information received, even if it is not necessarily accurate or objectively correct..
- Focus on action: Sensemaking seeks to provide a basis for action, guiding people in making decisions and responding to circumstances.
- Social process: Sensemaking can also be a social process, where people interact and share their interpretations to build a common understanding.
Tools to enhance Sensemaking in BANI environments
- Having a generalist rather than a specialist's view. Conceptual tool
- Use generative Artificial Intelligence to access knowledge, studies, and data that help understand the environment.
- Methodology for taking notes and organizing knowledge acquired through Artificial Intelligence. Tiago Forte's Second Brain Methodology is highly recommended.
- Advanced note management tools: Obsidian o Roam Research.
- Thinking and future scenarios.
- Simulations and models,
- Sensors and transparency.
The solution
In fragile, nonlinear, incomprehensible, and incomprehensible environments, the solution lies in attitude. The strength of the BANI concept, proposed by futurologist Jamais Cascio, is that it helps us focus on each of the concept's four components. This helps us make sense of the reality we perceive and make decisions.
Resilience
When faced with unsuccessful decisions, the best thing is resilience and trying again. It's a cycle of trial and error..
Innovation
One of the best catalysts for innovation is the anxiety generated in chaotic times.
Adaptability
Given the impossibility of flattening the curve and being able to predict the immediate future, the best thing is to adapt day by day.
Intuition
In the face of the incomprehensible, we must enhance quantitative data and qualitative data with intuition..
The Result
The objective of the BANI conceptual model is to help companies perceive reality and make decisions that help them operate successfully in high-selection-pressure environments. Few companies will survive in these environments, but those that do will find themselves stronger, more innovative, and with fewer competitors, making growth easier and faster.
The secret isn't to be data-centric, nor AI-centric, as they're now claiming. Data and AI are very powerful tools, but they aren't the essence of strategic decisions. The essence lies in seeing reality through science and making sense of it (sensemaking) to make strategic and tactical decisions that meet the company's economic logic. The expected result is...
Survival and growth in BANI environments
References
- Cascio, J. (2020). Facing the Age of Chaos - Jamais Cascio - Medium. [online] Medium. Available at: https://medium.com/@cascio/facing-the-age-of-chaos-b00687b1f51d [Accessed 15 Jun. 2025].
- “A La Caza de La Realidad : Bunge, Mario: Amazon.com.mx: Libros.” Amazon.com.mx, 2024, www.amazon.com.mx/caza-realidad-Mario-Bunge/dp/8497841239. Accessed 27 Aug. 2024.
- Alberts, D.S. and Hayes, R.E. (2006). UNDERSTANDING COMMAND AND CONTROL. [online] Available at: http://www.dodccrp.org/files/Alberts_UC2.pdf.
